Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

151.16 – 232.53

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

190 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 395.2 ±11.7

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX -14.01Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10912Dragons

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 49.25Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 115.92Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 520.6 ±10

3566Gone Fishin'

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 32.9Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 117.08Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

69HYPER

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 82.55Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5735, 10912, 5813

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5735, 10912, 5813

Auto

18.0 13%

Teleop

72.0 51%

Endgame

50.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3566, 125, 69

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3566, 125, 69

Auto

16.6 9%

Teleop

104.4 58%

Endgame

60.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score151.2pts

Blue projected score232.5pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -81.4
Score range: 127–257
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 405 vs event baseline 132.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

395.2Season APEX520.6

18Auto16.6

72Teleop104.4

50.4Endgame60.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	40
teleop	96	151
endgame	55	19
foul	0	5
total	190	215

Result

Final score

190 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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