Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

109.42 – 44.4

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

137 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 500.3 ±11.2

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 68.25Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 13.68Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1761STEAMpunk Tigers

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 27.49Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 248.8 ±13.3

4169Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 8.47Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4546Shockwave

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 35.65Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6731Record Robotics

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 0.28Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2713, 4311, 1761

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2713, 4311, 1761

Auto

15.5 14%

Teleop

47.6 43%

Endgame

47.8 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4169, 4546, 6731

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4169, 4546, 6731

Auto

14.7 26%

Teleop

15.2 27%

Endgame

26.5 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score109.4pts

Blue projected score44.4pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65
Score range: 20–133
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 135.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

500.3Season APEX248.8

15.5Auto14.7

47.6Teleop15.2

47.8Endgame26.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	8
teleop	85	10
endgame	32	1
foul	0	0
total	137	19

Result

Final score

137 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 26.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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