Qualification · Qualification 15
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
0 – 138.02
14%86%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
56 – 141
Prediction correct · off by 29.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.2 ±12.4
Season APEX 82.9Event APEX -5.4Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 104.6Event APEX -2.24Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 1.91Rank 37Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 310.6 ±12.8
Season APEX 77.7Event APEX 43.91Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 46.52Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 47.59Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 433, 3205, 97
8
/ 100 compatProjected
-5.7 pts
~0.7 RP (district)
Teams: 433, 3205, 97
Auto
10.4 0%
Teleop
0.2 0%
Endgame
-14.6 100%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 38%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6367, 2423, 246
69
/ 100 compatProjected
138 pts
~2.3 RP (district)
Teams: 6367, 2423, 246
Auto
25.4 30%
Teleop
42.4 51%
Endgame
15.8 19%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 38%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.32
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score-5.7pts
Blue projected score138pts
Red win probability14%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 38%, blue 56%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -138
- Score range
- -25–163
- Upset likelihood
- 14%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
242.2Season APEX310.6
10.4Auto25.4
0.2Teleop42.4
-14.6Endgame15.8
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 13 | 32 |
| teleop | 25 | 88 |
| endgame | 13 | 21 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 56 | 141 |
Result
Final score
56 – 141
Prediction correct · off by 29.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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