Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.52 – 95.66

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

153 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 67.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.8 ±12.4

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 44Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 20.52Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2084Robots by the C

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 6Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 224.1 ±11.6

3958Schrodinger's Cat

Season APEX 77Event APEX 80.86Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 6Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6731Record Robotics

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 8.8Rank 20Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2877, 8626, 2084

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2877, 8626, 2084

Auto

13.1 23%

Teleop

33.9 61%

Endgame

8.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3958, 5735, 6731

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3958, 5735, 6731

Auto

20.1 20%

Teleop

66.6 66%

Endgame

14.5 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.5pts

Blue projected score95.7pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.1
Score range: 46–121
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 139.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455.8Season APEX224.1

13.1Auto20.1

33.9Teleop66.6

8.8Endgame14.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	5
teleop	82	16
endgame	37	22
foul	5	0
total	153	43

Result

Final score

153 – 43

Prediction missed · off by 67.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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