Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.11 – 162.13

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

250 – 221

Prediction missed · off by 105.4 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 590.3 ±10.7

1058PVC Pirates

Season APEX 247.1Event APEX 23.71Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1761STEAMpunk Tigers

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX -12.41Rank 33Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 86.81Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 618.2 ±9.9

69HYPER

Season APEX 86.3Event APEX 86.81Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 27.52Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 47.8Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1058, 1761, 5813

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1058, 1761, 5813

Auto

15.4 16%

Teleop

63.7 66%

Endgame

17.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 69, 88, 2713

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 69, 88, 2713

Auto

43.3 27%

Teleop

106.9 68%

Endgame

7.9 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98.1pts

Blue projected score162.1pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64
Score range: 75–185
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 471 vs event baseline 130.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

590.3Season APEX618.2

15.4Auto43.3

63.7Teleop106.9

17.6Endgame7.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	22
teleop	142	100
endgame	62	84
foul	5	15
total	250	221

Result

Final score

250 – 221

Prediction missed · off by 105.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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