Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
98.02 – 129.78
40%60%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
110 – 62
Prediction missed · off by 39.9 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 392.1 ±11.7
Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 0.96Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 49.58Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 181.9Event APEX 47.48Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.6 ±11.7
Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 79.14Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 14.3Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 36.34Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 11483, 246, 78
50
/ 100 compatProjected
98 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 11483, 246, 78
Auto
28.9 29%
Teleop
67.4 68%
Endgame
2.6 3%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2876, 3205, 4311
64
/ 100 compatProjected
129.8 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 2876, 3205, 4311
Auto
24.0 20%
Teleop
76.3 64%
Endgame
18.9 16%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 49%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.72
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score98pts
Blue projected score129.8pts
Red win probability40%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 49%, blue 49%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -31.8
- Score range
- 74–154
- Upset likelihood
- 40%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
392.1Season APEX366.6
28.9Auto24
67.4Teleop76.3
2.6Endgame18.9
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 19 | 7 |
| teleop | 35 | 29 |
| endgame | 11 | 26 |
| foul | 45 | 0 |
| total | 110 | 62 |
Result
Final score
110 – 62
Prediction missed · off by 39.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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