Qualification · Qualification 10
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
128.74 – 214.83
26%74%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
157 – 177
Prediction correct · off by 33 points
Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 478.7 ±11.2
Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 43.11Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 39.34Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 271.5Event APEX 46.29Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 522.9 ±12
Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 46.29Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 122.83Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 45.71Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2423, 10912, 1922
65
/ 100 compatProjected
128.7 pts
~1.2 RP (district)
Teams: 2423, 10912, 1922
Auto
21.1 18%
Teleop
74.8 63%
Endgame
23.3 20%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4546, 125, 10156
82
/ 100 compatProjected
214.8 pts
~2.1 RP (district)
Teams: 4546, 125, 10156
Auto
34.2 17%
Teleop
139.0 70%
Endgame
25.2 13%
Strengths
- · 125 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 2.14
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score128.7pts
Blue projected score214.8pts
Red win probability26%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 60%, blue 60%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -86.1
- Score range
- 105–239
- Upset likelihood
- 26%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
478.7Season APEX522.9
21.1Auto34.2
74.8Teleop139
23.3Endgame25.2
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 7 | 11 |
| teleop | 99 | 105 |
| endgame | 51 | 61 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 157 | 177 |
Result
Final score
157 – 177
Prediction correct · off by 33 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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