Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.32 – 120.83

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

95 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 17.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 466.9 ±10.7

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 81.29Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 15.56Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4169Warrior Robotics

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 2.47Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 399.1 ±10.7

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 11.2Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9443Aluminum Panthers

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 19.18Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 90.45Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2877, 6201, 4169

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2877, 6201, 4169

Auto

26.3 30%

Teleop

36.9 42%

Endgame

25.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 433, 9443, 88

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 433, 9443, 88

Auto

33.1 26%

Teleop

67.6 54%

Endgame

25.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score99.3pts

Blue projected score120.8pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.5
Score range: 70–150
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 162.2.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

466.9Season APEX399.1

26.3Auto33.1

36.9Teleop67.6

25.1Endgame25

31Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	33
teleop	29	49
endgame	30	9
foul	15	0
total	95	91

Result

Final score

95 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 17.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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