Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

383.67 – 224.02

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

364 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 26.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 671.4 ±8.8

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 176.14Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3958Schrodinger's Cat

Season APEX 77Event APEX 32.62Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 174.91Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 736.4 ±8.7

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 16.61Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 117.23Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 90.18Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 125, 3958, 5813

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 125, 3958, 5813

Auto

58.3 16%

Teleop

220.8 59%

Endgame

92.4 25%

Strengths

· 125 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6201, 238, 2713

/ 100 compat

Projected

224 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6201, 238, 2713

Auto

56.8 27%

Teleop

109.8 52%

Endgame

44.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.35 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score383.7pts

Blue projected score224pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 159.7
Score range: 195–413
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 555 vs event baseline 160.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

671.4Season APEX736.4

58.3Auto56.8

220.8Teleop109.8

92.4Endgame44.1

0Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	39
teleop	214	102
endgame	57	45
foul	5	5
total	364	191

Result

Final score

364 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 26.3 pts

Match videos

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