Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

388.24 – 238.07

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

350 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 82.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 671.4 ±8.8

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 177.71Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3958Schrodinger's Cat

Season APEX 77Event APEX 33.84Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 176.69Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 736.4 ±8.7

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 21.06Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

238Crusaders

A+

Season APEX 297.5Event APEX 121.95Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 95.06Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 125, 3958, 5813

/ 100 compat

Projected

388.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 125, 3958, 5813

Auto

59.5 16%

Teleop

221.2 59%

Endgame

96.4 26%

Strengths

· 125 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6201, 238, 2713

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6201, 238, 2713

Auto

58.0 26%

Teleop

117.9 53%

Endgame

48.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.32 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score388.2pts

Blue projected score238.1pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 150.2
Score range: 209–417
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 461 vs event baseline 160.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

671.4Season APEX736.4

59.5Auto58

221.2Teleop117.9

96.4Endgame48.3

0Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	47
teleop	218	44
endgame	63	10
foul	20	10
total	350	111

Result

Final score

350 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 82.7 pts

Match videos

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