2026 Michigan Advanced Robotics Competition (MARC)

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

241.31 – 128.01

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

283 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 45.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 393 ±11

6081Digital Dislocators

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 94.08Rank 4Record 9-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 48.9Rank 10Record 7-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 98.33Rank 3Record 9-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 100.5 ±40.4

9970Off-Season Demo Team 9970

Season APEX -Event APEX 2.4Rank 13Record 6-9-0Status -Confidence -

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 61.27Rank 9Record 7-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 64.34Rank 5Record 8-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6081, 1502, 2834

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.3 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6081, 1502, 2834

Auto

33.9 15%

Teleop

137.4 62%

Endgame

50.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9970, 9993, 4381

/ 100 compat

Projected

128 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9970, 9993, 4381

Auto

29.2 26%

Teleop

49.9 44%

Endgame

34.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score241.3pts

Blue projected score128pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 113.3
Score range: 95–274
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 461 vs event baseline 181.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

393Season APEX100.5

33.9Auto29.2

137.4Teleop49.9

50.4Endgame34.6

22Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	38
teleop	161	104
endgame	102	36
foul	0	0
total	283	178

Result

Final score

283 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 45.8 pts

Match videos

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