2026 Michigan Advanced Robotics Competition (MARC)

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

338.03 – 116.52

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

341 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 18.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 518.8 ±9.5

240TEMPEST

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 13.15Rank 14Record 5-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 183.28Rank 1Record 13-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 141.6Rank 2Record 13-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 358.4 ±11

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 35.22Rank 11Record 7-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6120CyberStangs

Season APEX 78.1Event APEX 46.99Rank 6Record 7-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 34.31Rank 8Record 7-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 240, 503, 6615

/ 100 compat

Projected

338 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 240, 503, 6615

Auto

45.5 14%

Teleop

199.3 60%

Endgame

88.1 26%

Strengths

· 503 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 226, 6120, 4422

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.5 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 226, 6120, 4422

Auto

19.7 16%

Teleop

66.6 55%

Endgame

35.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.61 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score338pts

Blue projected score116.5pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 221.5
Score range: 84–371
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 423 vs event baseline 182.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

518.8Season APEX358.4

45.5Auto19.7

199.3Teleop66.6

88.1Endgame35.1

28Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	5
teleop	211	47
endgame	82	30
foul	15	0
total	341	82

Result

Final score

341 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 18.7 pts

Match videos

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