2026 Michigan Advanced Robotics Competition (MARC)

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

161.13 – 56.63

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

0 – 253

Prediction missed · off by 178.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±56.6

9988Off-Season Demo Team 9988

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 53.71Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9987Off-Season Demo Team 9987

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 53.71Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9989Off-Season Demo Team 9989

Season APEX -Event APEX 53.71Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.3 ±12.7

4395Dundee Vi-Borgs

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 13.84Rank 12Record 7-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 46.52Rank 7Record 7-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3773Arrowhead Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX -3.73Rank 15Record 5-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9988, 9987, 9989

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.1 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9988, 9987, 9989

Auto

41.1 27%

Teleop

71.1 47%

Endgame

40.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4395, 6570, 3773

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.6 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4395, 6570, 3773

Auto

4.9 8%

Teleop

38.9 62%

Endgame

19.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score161.1pts

Blue projected score56.6pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.5
Score range: 26–192
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 253 vs event baseline 172.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX179.3

41.1Auto4.9

71.1Teleop38.9

40.3Endgame19

0Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	31
teleop	87	137
endgame	116	80
foul	0	5
total	0	253

Result

Final score

0 – 253

Prediction missed · off by 178.8 pts

Match videos

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