2026 Michigan Advanced Robotics Competition (MARC)

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

105.55 – 85.89

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

282 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 176.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 100.5 ±40.4

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 56.23Rank 9Record 7-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 54.7Rank 5Record 8-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9970Off-Season Demo Team 9970

Season APEX -Event APEX -5.38Rank 13Record 6-9-0Status -Confidence -

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

9982Off-Season Demo Team 9982

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9981Off-Season Demo Team 9981

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9983Off-Season Demo Team 9983

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9993, 4381, 9970

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.6 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9993, 4381, 9970

Auto

26.0 26%

Teleop

41.7 41%

Endgame

33.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9982, 9981, 9983

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.9 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9982, 9981, 9983

Auto

25.8 30%

Teleop

42.9 50%

Endgame

17.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score105.6pts

Blue projected score85.9pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.7
Score range: 55–137
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 544 vs event baseline 171.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

100.5Season APEX0

26Auto-

41.7Teleop-

33.7Endgame-

45Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	36
teleop	109	64
endgame	47	57
foul	75	105
total	282	262

Result

Final score

282 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 176.3 pts