2026 Michigan Advanced Robotics Competition (MARC)

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.99 – 84.87

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

330 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 96.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 393 ±11

6081Digital Dislocators

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 91.26Rank 4Record 9-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 94.3Rank 3Record 9-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 46.43Rank 10Record 7-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±56.6

9985Off-Season Demo Team 9985

Season APEX -Event APEX -Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

9984Off-Season Demo Team 9984

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9986Off-Season Demo Team 9986

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6081, 2834, 1502

/ 100 compat

Projected

232 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6081, 2834, 1502

Auto

33.9 15%

Teleop

143.5 62%

Endgame

52.3 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9985, 9984, 9986

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.9 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9985, 9984, 9986

Auto

25.5 30%

Teleop

42.4 50%

Endgame

17.0 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score232pts

Blue projected score84.9pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 147.1
Score range: 54–263
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 510 vs event baseline 169.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

393Season APEX0

33.9Auto-

143.5Teleop-

52.3Endgame-

29Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	18
teleop	123	52
endgame	48	35
foul	120	75
total	330	180

Result

Final score

330 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 96.6 pts