2026 Michigan Advanced Robotics Competition (MARC)

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

123.7 – 56.86

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

121 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 2.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358.4 ±11

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 36.8Rank 11Record 7-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6120CyberStangs

Season APEX 78.1Event APEX 49.6Rank 6Record 7-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 37.3Rank 8Record 7-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.3 ±12.7

4395Dundee Vi-Borgs

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 13.93Rank 12Record 7-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 46.58Rank 7Record 7-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3773Arrowhead Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX -3.65Rank 15Record 5-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 226, 6120, 4422

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.7 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 226, 6120, 4422

Auto

22.1 17%

Teleop

68.1 53%

Endgame

39.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4395, 6570, 3773

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.9 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4395, 6570, 3773

Auto

3.4 5%

Teleop

41.6 65%

Endgame

19.0 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score123.7pts

Blue projected score56.9pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.8
Score range: 26–155
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 176 vs event baseline 174.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358.4Season APEX179.3

22.1Auto3.4

68.1Teleop41.6

39.4Endgame19

14Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	10
teleop	80	28
endgame	29	17
foul	0	0
total	121	55

Result

Final score

121 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 2.3 pts

Match videos

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