2026 Michigan Advanced Robotics Competition (MARC)

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

378.22 – 84.48

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

214 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 133.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 518.8 ±9.5

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 157.09Rank 2Record 13-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 194.26Rank 1Record 13-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

240TEMPEST

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 26.87Rank 14Record 5-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±56.6

9988Off-Season Demo Team 9988

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9987Off-Season Demo Team 9987

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9989Off-Season Demo Team 9989

Season APEX -Event APEX -Rank -Record -Status -Confidence -

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6615, 503, 240

/ 100 compat

Projected

378.2 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6615, 503, 240

Auto

49.6 13%

Teleop

228.3 61%

Endgame

97.9 26%

Strengths

· 503 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9988, 9987, 9989

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.5 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9988, 9987, 9989

Auto

25.3 30%

Teleop

42.2 50%

Endgame

16.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.68 · Blue 0.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score378.2pts

Blue projected score84.5pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 293.7
Score range: 54–408
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 402 vs event baseline 169.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

518.8Season APEX0

49.6Auto-

228.3Teleop-

97.9Endgame-

21Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	48
teleop	83	83
endgame	54	47
foul	45	10
total	214	188

Result

Final score

214 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 133.9 pts