2026 Michigan Advanced Robotics Competition (MARC)

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

236.02 – 121.31

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

218 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 393 ±11

6081Digital Dislocators

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 93.32Rank 4Record 9-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 47.11Rank 10Record 7-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 95.59Rank 3Record 9-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 100.5 ±40.4

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 60.23Rank 5Record 8-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9970Off-Season Demo Team 9970

Season APEX -Event APEX 1.48Rank 13Record 6-9-0Status -Confidence -

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 59.6Rank 9Record 7-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6081, 1502, 2834

/ 100 compat

Projected

236 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6081, 1502, 2834

Auto

35.9 15%

Teleop

140.6 59%

Endgame

59.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4381, 9970, 9993

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.3 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4381, 9970, 9993

Auto

32.1 27%

Teleop

55.5 46%

Endgame

31.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score236pts

Blue projected score121.3pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 114.7
Score range: 85–272
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 368 vs event baseline 202.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

393Season APEX100.5

35.9Auto32.1

140.6Teleop55.5

59.9Endgame31.8

26Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	38
teleop	120	67
endgame	39	45
foul	0	0
total	218	150

Result

Final score

218 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 pts

Match videos

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