2026 Michigan Advanced Robotics Competition (MARC)

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

118.28 – 251.57

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

132 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 105.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 100.5 ±40.4

9970Off-Season Demo Team 9970

Season APEX -Event APEX 0.72Rank 13Record 6-9-0Status -Confidence -

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 58.78Rank 9Record 7-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 58.78Rank 5Record 8-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 358.4 ±11

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 75.5Rank 11Record 7-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6120CyberStangs

Season APEX 78.1Event APEX 96.14Rank 6Record 7-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 79.93Rank 8Record 7-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9970, 9993, 4381

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.3 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9970, 9993, 4381

Auto

31.0 26%

Teleop

55.6 47%

Endgame

32.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 226, 6120, 4422

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.6 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 226, 6120, 4422

Auto

16.7 14%

Teleop

63.7 55%

Endgame

35.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score118.3pts

Blue projected score251.6pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -133.3
Score range: 81–289
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 186 vs event baseline 204.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

100.5Season APEX358.4

31Auto16.7

55.6Teleop63.7

32.5Endgame35

79Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	11
teleop	51	20
endgame	25	23
foul	15	0
total	132	54

Result

Final score

132 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 105.6 pts

Match videos

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