2026 Michigan Advanced Robotics Competition (MARC)

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

121.85 – 44.74

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

93 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 100.5 ±40.4

9970Off-Season Demo Team 9970

Season APEX -Event APEX 2.05Rank 13Record 6-9-0Status -Confidence -

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 59.9Rank 9Record 7-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 59.9Rank 5Record 8-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 123.8 ±41.4

4395Dundee Vi-Borgs

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 18.11Rank 12Record 7-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 45.61Rank 7Record 7-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -18.98Rank 16Record 3-12-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9970, 9993, 4381

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.9 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9970, 9993, 4381

Auto

30.9 25%

Teleop

56.7 46%

Endgame

34.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4395, 6570, 9992

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.7 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4395, 6570, 9992

Auto

10.9 14%

Teleop

50.4 67%

Endgame

14.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score121.9pts

Blue projected score44.7pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.1
Score range: 8–159
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 130 vs event baseline 205.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

100.5Season APEX123.8

30.9Auto10.9

56.7Teleop50.4

34.5Endgame14.3

80Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	15
teleop	49	20
endgame	8	2
foul	0	0
total	93	37

Result

Final score

93 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 pts

Match videos

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