2026 Michigan Advanced Robotics Competition (MARC)

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

138.63 – 258.12

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

168 – 449

Prediction correct · off by 110.1 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 203.2 ±41

6081Digital Dislocators

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 61.39Rank 6Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 11.33Rank 16Record 0-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 65.91Rank 4Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 548 ±9.5

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 130.12Rank 1Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 100.26Rank 3Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 27.74Rank 10Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6081, 9992, 4381

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.6 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6081, 9992, 4381

Auto

17.9 15%

Teleop

70.5 61%

Endgame

28.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6615, 503, 6570

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.1 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6615, 503, 6570

Auto

37.6 14%

Teleop

164.9 63%

Endgame

59.1 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.15 · Blue 2.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score138.6pts

Blue projected score258.1pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample32alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 78%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -119.5
Score range: 109–288
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 617 vs event baseline 165.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

203.2Season APEX548

17.9Auto37.6

70.5Teleop164.9

28Endgame59.1

199Consistency241

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	36
teleop	91	289
endgame	53	124
foul	0	0
total	168	449

Result

Final score

168 – 449

Prediction correct · off by 110.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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