2026 Michigan Advanced Robotics Competition (MARC)

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

142.96 – 196.65

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

139 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 35.2 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.4 ±40.9

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 13.06Rank 16Record 0-6-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 92.91Rank 8Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 36.99Rank 5Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 277.2 ±41

4395Dundee Vi-Borgs

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 20.7Rank 7Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 84.04Rank 3Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 91.91Rank 2Record 5-1-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9992, 4422, 2834

/ 100 compat

Projected

143 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9992, 4422, 2834

Auto

13.4 9%

Teleop

85.0 58%

Endgame

47.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4395, 503, 9993

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.7 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4395, 503, 9993

Auto

39.0 21%

Teleop

100.8 54%

Endgame

46.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.46 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score143pts

Blue projected score196.7pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample32alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 78%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.7
Score range: 114–226
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 402 vs event baseline 160.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.4Season APEX277.2

13.4Auto39

85Teleop100.8

47.8Endgame46.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	43
teleop	86	157
endgame	40	63
foul	0	0
total	139	263

Result

Final score

139 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 35.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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