2026 Michigan Advanced Robotics Competition (MARC)

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

120.68 – 277.92

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 265

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 281.2 ±11.6

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 36.06Rank 12Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 45.38Rank 8Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6120CyberStangs

Season APEX 78.1Event APEX 39.24Rank 10Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 461.1 ±9.4

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 48.2Rank 13Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 163.86Rank 2Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 65.86Rank 6Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6570, 1502, 6120

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.7 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6570, 1502, 6120

Auto

20.0 17%

Teleop

66.9 55%

Endgame

34.0 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4422, 503, 4381

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.9 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4422, 503, 4381

Auto

33.2 12%

Teleop

165.0 60%

Endgame

74.9 27%

Strengths

· 503 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score120.7pts

Blue projected score277.9pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample50alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 81%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -157.2
Score range: 91–308
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 338 vs event baseline 164.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

281.2Season APEX461.1

20Auto33.2

66.9Teleop165

34Endgame74.9

38Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	24
teleop	38	168
endgame	26	73
foul	0	0
total	73	265

Result

Final score

73 – 265

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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