2026 Michigan Advanced Robotics Competition (MARC)

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

189.77 – 36.1

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 20.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 281.3 ±11.6

6120CyberStangs

Season APEX 78.1Event APEX 38.26Rank 10Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 65.21Rank 6Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6081Digital Dislocators

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 86.3Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 221.4 ±12.2

3773Arrowhead Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX -17.6Rank 16Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 37.16Rank 8Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4395Dundee Vi-Borgs

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 16.54Rank 7Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6120, 4381, 6081

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.8 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6120, 4381, 6081

Auto

28.2 15%

Teleop

103.2 55%

Endgame

56.0 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3773, 1502, 4395

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.1 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3773, 1502, 4395

Auto

16.4 57%

Teleop

7.2 25%

Endgame

5.2 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.55 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score189.8pts

Blue projected score36.1pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample50alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 153.7
Score range: 6–220
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 267 vs event baseline 165.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

281.3Season APEX221.4

28.2Auto16.4

103.2Teleop7.2

56Endgame5.2

23Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	13
teleop	134	35
endgame	38	12
foul	0	15
total	192	75

Result

Final score

192 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 20.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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