2026 Michigan Advanced Robotics Competition (MARC)

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

178.78 – 173.45

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 238

Prediction missed · off by 68.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 285.3 ±11.6

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 57.18Rank 9Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 82.59Rank 10Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6120CyberStangs

Season APEX 78.1Event APEX 39.01Rank 12Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.5 ±11.4

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 120.08Rank 2Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4395Dundee Vi-Borgs

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 24.15Rank 6Record 5-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

240TEMPEST

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 29.22Rank 14Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6570, 4422, 6120

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.8 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6570, 4422, 6120

Auto

16.3 9%

Teleop

104.5 56%

Endgame

66.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 503, 4395, 240

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.5 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 503, 4395, 240

Auto

30.5 17%

Teleop

110.4 62%

Endgame

37.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score178.8pts

Blue projected score173.5pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample42alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.3
Score range: 144–208
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 344 vs event baseline 163.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

285.3Season APEX328.5

16.3Auto30.5

104.5Teleop110.4

66.3Endgame37.4

52Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	41
teleop	68	132
endgame	21	65
foul	0	0
total	106	238

Result

Final score

106 – 238

Prediction missed · off by 68.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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