2026 Michigan Advanced Robotics Competition (MARC)

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

160.82 – 105.57

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

193 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 24.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 417 ±10.4

4422Twisted Angels

Season APEX 126.7Event APEX 84Rank 13Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 10.35Rank 8Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 66.47Rank 3Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 151.8 ±41

240TEMPEST

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 24.26Rank 11Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4381Twisted Devils

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 74.67Rank 6Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 6.64Rank 15Record 2-8-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4422, 1502, 2834

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.8 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4422, 1502, 2834

Auto

22.0 14%

Teleop

89.5 56%

Endgame

47.6 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 240, 4381, 9992

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.6 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 240, 4381, 9992

Auto

21.2 23%

Teleop

51.2 55%

Endgame

21.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score160.8pts

Blue projected score105.6pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample50alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.3
Score range: 76–191
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 316 vs event baseline 165.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

417Season APEX151.8

22Auto21.2

89.5Teleop51.2

47.6Endgame21.3

144Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	29
teleop	116	60
endgame	35	34
foul	0	0
total	193	123

Result

Final score

193 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 24.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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