2026 Michigan Advanced Robotics Competition (MARC)

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

275.53 – 170.48

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

235 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 414.4 ±11.1

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 186.26Rank 1Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6120CyberStangs

Season APEX 78.1Event APEX 19.31Rank 12Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6081Digital Dislocators

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 69.96Rank 6Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203.1 ±41

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 101.95Rank 2Record 5-1-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6570Whiteford Bobcats

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 53.46Rank 10Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 15.07Rank 9Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6615, 6120, 6081

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.5 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6615, 6120, 6081

Auto

33.6 12%

Teleop

162.7 58%

Endgame

82.2 30%

Strengths

· 6615 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9993, 6570, 1502

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.5 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9993, 6570, 1502

Auto

30.1 20%

Teleop

85.7 56%

Endgame

37.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.37 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score275.5pts

Blue projected score170.5pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample32alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 105
Score range: 140–306
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 401 vs event baseline 168.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

414.4Season APEX203.1

33.6Auto30.1

162.7Teleop85.7

82.2Endgame37

62Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	43
teleop	120	72
endgame	81	51
foul	0	0
total	235	166

Result

Final score

235 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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