2026 Michigan Advanced Robotics Competition (MARC)

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.6 – 114.4

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 61.6 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 133.6 ±41.2

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 32.91Rank 16Record 1-7-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

6120CyberStangs

Season APEX 78.1Event APEX 16.79Rank 12Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3773Arrowhead Robotics

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 18.9Rank 15Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219 ±41

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 86.88Rank 5Record 6-2-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 21.51Rank 3Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

240TEMPEST

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 6.01Rank 14Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9992, 6120, 3773

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.6 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9992, 6120, 3773

Auto

12.0 18%

Teleop

37.9 57%

Endgame

17.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9993, 2834, 240

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.4 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9993, 2834, 240

Auto

34.4 31%

Teleop

45.9 41%

Endgame

31.6 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.33 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score68.6pts

Blue projected score114.4pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample42alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.8
Score range: 38–145
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 173.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

133.6Season APEX219

12Auto34.4

37.9Teleop45.9

17.1Endgame31.6

102Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	38
teleop	17	126
endgame	19	45
foul	0	0
total	40	209

Result

Final score

40 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 61.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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