2026 Michigan Advanced Robotics Competition (MARC)

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

341.6 – 237.19

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

361 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 518.8 ±9.5

240TEMPEST

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 17.57Rank 14Record 5-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 182.4Rank 1Record 13-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 141.63Rank 2Record 13-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 393 ±11

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 95.38Rank 3Record 9-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 47.54Rank 10Record 7-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6081Digital Dislocators

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 94.27Rank 4Record 9-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 240, 503, 6615

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.6 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 240, 503, 6615

Auto

46.7 13%

Teleop

212.2 61%

Endgame

88.3 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2834, 1502, 6081

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.2 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2834, 1502, 6081

Auto

38.2 16%

Teleop

138.8 59%

Endgame

59.1 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.3 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score341.6pts

Blue projected score237.2pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.4
Score range: 200–379
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 628 vs event baseline 205.3.

← Previous

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

518.8Season APEX393

46.7Auto38.2

212.2Teleop138.8

88.3Endgame59.1

23Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	30
teleop	197	135
endgame	100	97
foul	0	5
total	361	267

Result

Final score

361 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.