2026 Michigan Advanced Robotics Competition (MARC)

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

327.44 – 233.94

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

465 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 94.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 518.8 ±9.5

240TEMPEST

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 12.73Rank 14Record 5-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

503Frog Force

Season APEX 233.9Event APEX 178.07Rank 1Record 13-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 136.64Rank 2Record 13-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 393 ±11

2834Bionic Black Hawks

Season APEX 167.7Event APEX 94.83Rank 3Record 9-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1502Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 122.6Event APEX 46.5Rank 10Record 7-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6081Digital Dislocators

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 92.61Rank 4Record 9-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 240, 503, 6615

/ 100 compat

Projected

327.4 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 240, 503, 6615

Auto

43.6 13%

Teleop

207.9 62%

Endgame

82.1 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2834, 1502, 6081

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.9 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2834, 1502, 6081

Auto

38.3 16%

Teleop

138.3 59%

Endgame

57.6 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.25 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score327.4pts

Blue projected score233.9pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample110alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93.5
Score range: 198–363
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 750 vs event baseline 202.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

518.8Season APEX393

43.6Auto38.3

207.9Teleop138.3

82.1Endgame57.6

34Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	41
teleop	249	148
endgame	143	81
foul	0	15
total	465	285

Result

Final score

465 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 94.3 pts

Match videos

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