Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

357.98 – 315.24

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

298 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 75.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 571.3 ±8.8

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 55.08Rank 18Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 131.66Rank 12Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 171.24Rank 7Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 421.5 ±10.4

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 94.98Rank 23Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 123.13Rank 10Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 97.13Rank 22Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4905, 4909, 9644

/ 100 compat

Projected

358 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4905, 4909, 9644

Auto

77.5 23%

Teleop

177.0 52%

Endgame

83.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1100, 4311, 839

/ 100 compat

Projected

315.2 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1100, 4311, 839

Auto

45.7 15%

Teleop

174.5 57%

Endgame

83.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score358pts

Blue projected score315.2pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample82alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.7
Score range: 253–420
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 523 vs event baseline 346.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

571.3Season APEX421.5

77.5Auto45.7

177Teleop174.5

83.2Endgame83.4

77Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	46
teleop	166	120
endgame	35	54
foul	0	5
total	298	225

Result

Final score

298 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 75.1 pts