Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

281.76 – 250.87

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

382 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 135.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 421.5 ±10.4

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 86.4Rank 23Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 105.49Rank 10Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 89.87Rank 22Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.6 ±10.4

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 93.61Rank 11Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 56.12Rank 24Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

61BVT Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 101.14Rank 9Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1100, 4311, 839

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.8 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1100, 4311, 839

Auto

46.0 17%

Teleop

157.3 57%

Endgame

73.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2079, 1119, 61

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.9 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2079, 1119, 61

Auto

32.8 13%

Teleop

142.1 58%

Endgame

68.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score281.8pts

Blue projected score250.9pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample82alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.9
Score range: 189–344
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 463 vs event baseline 343.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

421.5Season APEX376.6

46Auto32.8

157.3Teleop142.1

73.6Endgame68.4

91Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	19
teleop	192	39
endgame	109	23
foul	30	0
total	382	81

Result

Final score

382 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 135.1 pts