Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

443.45 – 245.85

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

489 – 372

Prediction correct · off by 85.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 693.9 ±9.3

2876DevilBotz

Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 42.27Rank 20Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 234.21Rank 2Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 166.97Rank 13Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 421.5 ±10.4

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 75.25Rank 23Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 93.31Rank 10Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 77.29Rank 22Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2876, 88, 5000

/ 100 compat

Projected

443.5 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2876, 88, 5000

Auto

104.4 24%

Teleop

225.6 53%

Endgame

98.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1100, 4311, 839

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.9 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1100, 4311, 839

Auto

38.4 16%

Teleop

150.3 62%

Endgame

52.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.51 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score443.5pts

Blue projected score245.9pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample82alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 197.6
Score range: 184–505
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 861 vs event baseline 342.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

693.9Season APEX421.5

104.4Auto38.4

225.6Teleop150.3

98.6Endgame52

69Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	57
teleop	335	203
endgame	68	107
foul	10	5
total	489	372

Result

Final score

489 – 372

Prediction correct · off by 85.9 pts