Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

354.18 – 274.36

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

381 – 490

Prediction missed · off by 121.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 504.5 ±9.8

9710Discovery Polybotz

Season APEX 109Event APEX 14.02Rank 25Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 208.23Rank 8Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 131.93Rank 6Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 571.3 ±8.8

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 45.05Rank 18Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 96.57Rank 12Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 132.74Rank 7Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9710, 10254, 8013

/ 100 compat

Projected

354.2 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9710, 10254, 8013

Auto

64.6 20%

Teleop

192.9 59%

Endgame

69.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4905, 4909, 9644

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.4 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4905, 4909, 9644

Auto

67.5 24%

Teleop

161.3 58%

Endgame

47.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score354.2pts

Blue projected score274.4pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample82alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.8
Score range: 213–415
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 871 vs event baseline 339.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

504.5Season APEX571.3

64.6Auto67.5

192.9Teleop161.3

69.6Endgame47.8

151Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	117	86
teleop	186	218
endgame	63	156
foul	15	30
total	381	490

Result

Final score

381 – 490

Prediction missed · off by 121.2 pts