Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

627.95 – 134.37

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

674 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 61.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 749.1 ±10.2

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 324.75Rank 1Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 30.93Rank 26Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 272.27Rank 3Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 455.4 ±9.8

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 31Rank 14Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 39.8Rank 16Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 63.57Rank 17Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6328, 8626, 125

/ 100 compat

Projected

628 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6328, 8626, 125

Auto

125.8 20%

Teleop

403.4 64%

Endgame

103.5 16%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6201, 5422, 5962

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.4 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6201, 5422, 5962

Auto

34.7 31%

Teleop

43.9 39%

Endgame

35.1 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.56 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score628pts

Blue projected score134.4pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample82alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 493.6
Score range: 73–689
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 731 vs event baseline 338.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

749.1Season APEX455.4

125.8Auto34.7

403.4Teleop43.9

103.5Endgame35.1

115Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	158	23
teleop	344	2
endgame	157	17
foul	15	15
total	674	57

Result

Final score

674 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 61.7 pts