Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

434.18 – 345.55

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

255 – 366

Prediction missed · off by 99.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 542.1 ±9.8

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 186.59Rank 5Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 66.94Rank 15Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 180.65Rank 4Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 571.3 ±8.8

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 53.82Rank 18Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 126.73Rank 12Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 165Rank 7Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1153, 4761, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

434.2 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1153, 4761, 2877

Auto

60.1 14%

Teleop

250.5 57%

Endgame

128.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4905, 4909, 9644

/ 100 compat

Projected

345.6 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4905, 4909, 9644

Auto

80.9 25%

Teleop

175.6 53%

Endgame

72.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.3 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score434.2pts

Blue projected score345.6pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample82alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.6
Score range: 283–497
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 621 vs event baseline 350.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

542.1Season APEX571.3

60.1Auto80.9

250.5Teleop175.6

128Endgame72.6

122Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	64
teleop	90	147
endgame	96	155
foul	5	0
total	255	366

Result

Final score

255 – 366

Prediction missed · off by 99.8 pts