Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

429.37 – 349.16

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

451 – 393

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 542.1 ±9.8

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 184.67Rank 5Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 64.45Rank 15Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 180.25Rank 4Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 504.5 ±9.8

9710Discovery Polybotz

Season APEX 109Event APEX 13.17Rank 25Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 209.51Rank 8Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 126.48Rank 6Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1153, 4761, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

429.4 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1153, 4761, 2877

Auto

60.4 14%

Teleop

252.5 58%

Endgame

122.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9710, 10254, 8013

/ 100 compat

Projected

349.2 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9710, 10254, 8013

Auto

87.7 27%

Teleop

183.1 56%

Endgame

54.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.26 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score429.4pts

Blue projected score349.2pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample82alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.2
Score range: 287–491
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 844 vs event baseline 343.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

542.1Season APEX504.5

60.4Auto87.7

252.5Teleop183.1

122.5Endgame54.5

112Consistency155

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	92
teleop	238	207
endgame	151	89
foul	0	5
total	451	393

Result

Final score

451 – 393

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 pts