Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

311.33 – 298.98

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

326 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 618.3 ±9.4

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 153.38Rank 3Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 43.65Rank 17Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 114.3Rank 16Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 666.2 ±8.8

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 114.3Rank 8Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 87.76Rank 18Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 96.92Rank 12Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 125, 5962, 5422

/ 100 compat

Projected

311.3 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 125, 5962, 5422

Auto

69.0 23%

Teleop

200.7 66%

Endgame

33.2 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10254, 4905, 4909

/ 100 compat

Projected

299 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10254, 4905, 4909

Auto

87.4 30%

Teleop

198.1 69%

Endgame

2.7 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score311.3pts

Blue projected score299pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample82alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.3
Score range: 243–367
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 577 vs event baseline 308.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

618.3Season APEX666.2

69Auto87.4

200.7Teleop198.1

33.2Endgame2.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	41
teleop	224	126
endgame	45	64
foul	0	20
total	326	251

Result

Final score

326 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree