Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

227.81 – 118.08

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

612 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 279.6 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 778.6 ±9.3

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 50.89Rank 13Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 159.71Rank 1Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 17.21Rank 19Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 468.7 ±9.8

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 68.77Rank 4Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX -11.52Rank 22Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

61BVT Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 60.83Rank 9Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5000, 6328, 10973

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.8 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5000, 6328, 10973

Auto

73.3 33%

Teleop

147.5 67%

Endgame

-0.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2877, 839, 61

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.1 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2877, 839, 61

Auto

18.3 16%

Teleop

70.9 62%

Endgame

25.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.39 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score227.8pts

Blue projected score118.1pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample82alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 109.7
Score range: 66–280
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 905 vs event baseline 287.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

778.6Season APEX468.7

73.3Auto18.3

147.5Teleop70.9

-0.6Endgame25.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	45
teleop	338	125
endgame	204	93
foul	0	30
total	612	293

Result

Final score

612 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 279.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree