Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

424.22 – 196.99

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

396 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 599.3 ±8.2

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 125.97Rank 12Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 35.29Rank 24Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 262.96Rank 3Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 400.9 ±11.2

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 15.7Rank 26Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9710Discovery Polybotz

Season APEX 109Event APEX 17.09Rank 25Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 164.2Rank 7Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4909, 1119, 125

/ 100 compat

Projected

424.2 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4909, 1119, 125

Auto

91.1 22%

Teleop

244.9 58%

Endgame

86.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8626, 9710, 9644

/ 100 compat

Projected

197 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8626, 9710, 9644

Auto

80.2 41%

Teleop

76.2 39%

Endgame

37.3 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.59 · Blue 0.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score424.2pts

Blue projected score197pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample82alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 227.2
Score range: 133–488
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 599 vs event baseline 356.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

599.3Season APEX400.9

91.1Auto80.2

244.9Teleop76.2

86.7Endgame37.3

90Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	50
teleop	249	83
endgame	84	70
foul	0	0
total	396	203

Result

Final score

396 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree