Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

567.38 – 312.71

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

559 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 31 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 728.9 ±9.3

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 322.76Rank 1Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 29.35Rank 16Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 215.27Rank 8Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 637 ±9.8

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX 57.14Rank 15Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 85.34Rank 11Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 170.23Rank 13Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6328, 5422, 10254

/ 100 compat

Projected

567.4 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6328, 5422, 10254

Auto

120.5 22%

Teleop

320.7 59%

Endgame

98.0 18%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4761, 2079, 5000

/ 100 compat

Projected

312.7 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4761, 2079, 5000

Auto

61.5 19%

Teleop

180.0 57%

Endgame

74.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.72 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score567.4pts

Blue projected score312.7pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample82alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 254.7
Score range: 249–631
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 818 vs event baseline 356.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

728.9Season APEX637

120.5Auto61.5

320.7Teleop180

98Endgame74

122Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	133	67
teleop	361	129
endgame	35	63
foul	30	0
total	559	259

Result

Final score

559 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 31 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree