Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

282.87 – 247.85

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

161 – 312

Prediction missed · off by 93 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 670 ±9.8

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 66.19Rank 18Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 26.27Rank 21Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 190.41Rank 13Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397.4 ±10.4

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 186.18Rank 5Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 58.73Rank 22Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9710Discovery Polybotz

Season APEX 109Event APEX 2.94Rank 25Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4905, 11483, 5000

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.9 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4905, 11483, 5000

Auto

56.3 20%

Teleop

157.0 55%

Endgame

73.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1153, 839, 9710

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.9 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1153, 839, 9710

Auto

36.3 15%

Teleop

111.0 45%

Endgame

98.3 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score282.9pts

Blue projected score247.9pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample82alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35
Score range: 186–345
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 473 vs event baseline 342.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

670Season APEX397.4

56.3Auto36.3

157Teleop111

73.8Endgame98.3

63Consistency118

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	62
teleop	86	188
endgame	8	62
foul	0	0
total	161	312

Result

Final score

161 – 312

Prediction missed · off by 93 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree