Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

638.89 – 260.29

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

563 – 434

Prediction correct · off by 124.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 702.2 ±9.3

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 111.27Rank 10Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 354.93Rank 1Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 172.69Rank 4Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 562.3 ±9.3

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 104.5Rank 6Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX -21.55Rank 14Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 177.34Rank 8Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4311, 6328, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

638.9 pts

~2.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4311, 6328, 2877

Auto

102.9 16%

Teleop

393.9 62%

Endgame

133.7 21%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8013, 6201, 10254

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.3 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8013, 6201, 10254

Auto

66.9 27%

Teleop

130.9 52%

Endgame

52.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.82 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score638.9pts

Blue projected score260.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample82alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 378.6
Score range: 200–699
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 997 vs event baseline 335.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

702.2Season APEX562.3

102.9Auto66.9

393.9Teleop130.9

133.7Endgame52.1

120Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	117	56
teleop	329	186
endgame	117	102
foul	0	90
total	563	434

Result

Final score

563 – 434

Prediction correct · off by 124.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree