Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

186.92 – 229.82

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 75.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 499.4 ±10.4

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 75.58Rank 17Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4905Andromeda One

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 46.55Rank 18Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 64.79Rank 22Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 448 ±10.4

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 109.03Rank 11Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 68.59Rank 16Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9710Discovery Polybotz

Season APEX 109Event APEX 52.2Rank 25Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5962, 4905, 839

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.9 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5962, 4905, 839

Auto

10.8 6%

Teleop

100.2 57%

Endgame

63.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2079, 5422, 9710

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.8 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2079, 5422, 9710

Auto

64.8 30%

Teleop

120.0 56%

Endgame

29.4 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score186.9pts

Blue projected score229.8pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample82alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.9
Score range: 125–292
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 342.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

499.4Season APEX448

10.8Auto64.8

100.2Teleop120

63.5Endgame29.4

102Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	18
teleop	104	54
endgame	63	15
foul	0	0
total	195	87

Result

Final score

195 – 87

Prediction missed · off by 75.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree