Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

303.42 – 383.83

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

445 – 514

Prediction correct · off by 135.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 528.5 ±9.8

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 55.66Rank 24Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 163.3Rank 8Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 84.46Rank 10Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 498.5 ±9.8

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 1.72Rank 21Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

61BVT Robotics

Season APEX 86.1Event APEX 43.65Rank 9Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 338.46Rank 1Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1119, 10254, 4311

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.4 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1119, 10254, 4311

Auto

68.9 24%

Teleop

191.9 65%

Endgame

32.3 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11483, 61, 6328

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.8 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11483, 61, 6328

Auto

80.8 22%

Teleop

219.9 60%

Endgame

62.9 17%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.31 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score303.4pts

Blue projected score383.8pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample82alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80.4
Score range: 244–443
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 959 vs event baseline 328.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

528.5Season APEX498.5

68.9Auto80.8

191.9Teleop219.9

32.3Endgame62.9

99Consistency151

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	107
teleop	229	293
endgame	120	114
foul	20	0
total	445	514

Result

Final score

445 – 514

Prediction correct · off by 135.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree