Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

172.98 – 389.67

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

222 – 469

Prediction correct · off by 64.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 407.8 ±11.7

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 74.5Rank 22Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 48.86Rank 26Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5422Stormgears

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 49.62Rank 16Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 526.4 ±9.8

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 68.64Rank 23Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 205.49Rank 2Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 115.54Rank 6Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 839, 8626, 5422

/ 100 compat

Projected

173 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 839, 8626, 5422

Auto

37.4 23%

Teleop

115.2 70%

Endgame

12.8 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1100, 88, 8013

/ 100 compat

Projected

389.7 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1100, 88, 8013

Auto

92.0 24%

Teleop

231.4 61%

Endgame

57.8 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.56 · Blue 2.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score173pts

Blue projected score389.7pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample82alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -216.7
Score range: 113–450
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 691 vs event baseline 332.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

407.8Season APEX526.4

37.4Auto92

115.2Teleop231.4

12.8Endgame57.8

134Consistency187

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	115
teleop	118	283
endgame	49	71
foul	30	0
total	222	469

Result

Final score

222 – 469

Prediction correct · off by 64.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree