Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

226.88 – 280.47

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

456 – 337

Prediction missed · off by 142.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 538 ±9.8

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 128.41Rank 8Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 134.14Rank 5Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2876DevilBotz

Season APEX 112.3Event APEX -35.67Rank 20Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 561.9 ±9.8

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 68.26Rank 24Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 109.62Rank 13Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 102.59Rank 17Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10254, 1153, 2876

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.9 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10254, 1153, 2876

Auto

22.3 10%

Teleop

129.6 60%

Endgame

63.8 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1119, 5000, 5962

/ 100 compat

Projected

280.5 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1119, 5000, 5962

Auto

38.2 13%

Teleop

161.1 56%

Endgame

87.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score226.9pts

Blue projected score280.5pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample82alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.6
Score range: 168–339
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 793 vs event baseline 327.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

538Season APEX561.9

22.3Auto38.2

129.6Teleop161.1

63.8Endgame87.6

119Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	88
teleop	247	164
endgame	122	80
foul	0	5
total	456	337

Result

Final score

456 – 337

Prediction missed · off by 142.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree