Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

539.87 – 166.84

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

785 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 161.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 812 ±8.8

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 102.62Rank 11Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 151.19Rank 3Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 286.06Rank 1Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 425.8 ±9.4

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 94.29Rank 19Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 65.96Rank 12Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 6.59Rank 21Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2079, 125, 6328

/ 100 compat

Projected

539.9 pts

~2.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2079, 125, 6328

Auto

109.8 21%

Teleop

301.9 58%

Endgame

110.1 21%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10973, 4909, 11483

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.8 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10973, 4909, 11483

Auto

13.8 8%

Teleop

106.3 64%

Endgame

46.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.82 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score539.9pts

Blue projected score166.8pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample82alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 373
Score range: 111–596
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1030 vs event baseline 313.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

812Season APEX425.8

109.8Auto13.8

301.9Teleop106.3

110.1Endgame46.6

193Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	143	59
teleop	529	105
endgame	113	76
foul	0	5
total	785	245

Result

Final score

785 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 161.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree