Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

254.22 – 135.68

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

364 – 379

Prediction missed · off by 176.6 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 593.6 ±9.8

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 140.27Rank 13Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1100Inverse Polarity

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 70.23Rank 23Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

839Rosie Robotics

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 43.72Rank 22Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 533.8 ±9.8

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 48.85Rank 17Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10254Regal Seagulls

Season APEX 269Event APEX 92.41Rank 8Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4761The Robockets

Season APEX 134.5Event APEX -5.58Rank 15Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5000, 1100, 839

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.2 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5000, 1100, 839

Auto

55.0 22%

Teleop

128.0 52%

Endgame

63.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5962, 10254, 4761

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.7 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5962, 10254, 4761

Auto

21.2 17%

Teleop

73.2 58%

Endgame

31.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.26 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score254.2pts

Blue projected score135.7pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample82alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 118.5
Score range: 80–310
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 743 vs event baseline 311.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

593.6Season APEX533.8

55Auto21.2

128Teleop73.2

63.9Endgame31.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	68
teleop	215	205
endgame	78	106
foul	0	0
total	364	379

Result

Final score

364 – 379

Prediction missed · off by 176.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree