Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

199.24 – 488.44

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

169 – 585

Prediction correct · off by 63.4 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 376.5 ±10.4

9710Discovery Polybotz

Season APEX 109Event APEX 85.49Rank 25Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 101.97Rank 19Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2876DevilBotz

Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 11.78Rank 20Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 728.2 ±8.7

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 285.72Rank 1Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 204.71Rank 2Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX -1.99Rank 14Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9710, 10973, 2876

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.2 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9710, 10973, 2876

Auto

22.8 12%

Teleop

106.0 54%

Endgame

68.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6328, 88, 6201

/ 100 compat

Projected

488.4 pts

~2.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6328, 88, 6201

Auto

88.8 19%

Teleop

278.5 58%

Endgame

109.2 23%

Strengths

· 6328 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.58 · Blue 2.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score199.2pts

Blue projected score488.4pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample82alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -289.2
Score range: 144–543
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 754 vs event baseline 304.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

376.5Season APEX728.2

22.8Auto88.8

106Teleop278.5

68.7Endgame109.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	139
teleop	85	277
endgame	55	134
foul	0	35
total	169	585

Result

Final score

169 – 585

Prediction correct · off by 63.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree